Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave.

The large number of infected persons due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need of hospital care for many of them induced the majority of world governments to implement lockdown measures. We developed an analytical model to evaluate the trend of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This model was applied to the first four months of the epidemiological data of the most affected countries in Europe and Russia, in order to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemic curves during the first wave. According to our model, the difference between the beginning of the lockdown and the slope change of the curve representing the daily distribution of counts was: Germany and Spain 6 days, France 7 days, the United Kingdom 9 days, Italy 21 days, and Russia 30 days. On the basis of these results, we infer a possible cause-effect relationship between the lockdown imposed in countries taken into account and the curve representing the daily distribution of new cases. Lockdown measures imposed by governments slowed the spread of the pandemic and reduced the number of infected persons. In economic terms, the damage was considerable, with entire production sectors in crisis. On the other hand, the efforts and innovations implemented to produce vaccines and effective treatments against the pandemic could be applied also in other fields of public health.

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging during the COVID-19 pandemic: A southern Italian single-center experience.

PURPOSE: We aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging studies performed during the lockdown imposed by the Italian Government from March 2020 to May 2020. MATERIALS AND METHOD: We reviewed the number and the findings of CMR scans performed during the COVID-19 pandemic between March and May 2020 at University of Naples Federico II. The number and the findings of CMR studies acquired in the corresponding months of 2017, 2018 and 2019 were also assessed for direct comparison. RESULTS: A total of 117 CMR studies was considered, including the procedures performed during the pandemic (n = 18) and those performed in the corresponding months of the prior 3 years (n = 99). The number of CMR studies performed during the COVID-19 pandemic was significantly (P < .01) lower compared to the mean number (n = 33) of the procedures performed in the corresponding months of 2017-2019. The percentage of abnormal CMR studies was similar (P = 0.73) during the pandemic (67 %) compared to that found in the corresponding months of 2017-2019 (70 %) suggesting that many abnormal tests were missed due to the lockdown. CONCLUSION: The number of CMR studies was significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the corresponding period of the previous three years. The lack of difference in the prevalence of abnormal CMR studies between the two study time intervals strongly suggests that many patients with potentially abnormal imaging test have been missed during the pandemic.

First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast.

Background: The first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution. Results: A total of 101,739 infected individuals were confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3981 in intensive care. The active cases (i.e. the number of patients not yet recovered until that date) were 75,528. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 234,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic of approximately 4 months. Conclusions: One month after the first outbreaks there seemed to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic. The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on myocardial perfusion imaging for ischemic heart disease.

PURPOSE: We assessed the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for ischemic heart disease during the lockdown imposed by the Italian Government. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the number and the findings of stress single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)-MPI performed between February and May 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic at the University of Napoli Federico II. The number and the findings of stress SPECT-MPI studies acquired in the corresponding months of the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 were also evaluated for direct comparison. RESULTS: The number of stress SPECT-MPI studies performed during the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 123) was significantly lower (P < 0.0001) compared with the mean yearly number of procedures performed in the corresponding months of the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 (n = 413). Yet, the percentage of abnormal stress SPECT-MPI studies was similar (P = 0.65) during the pandemic (36%) compared with the mean percentage value of the corresponding period of the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 (34%). CONCLUSION: The number of stress SPECT-MPI studies was significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the corresponding months of the previous 3 years. The lack of difference in the prevalence of abnormal SPECT-MPI studies between the two study periods strongly suggests that many patients with potentially abnormal imaging test have been missed during the pandemic.